NASCAR Looks Ahead to the Chase for the Sprint Cup After a Volatile Night in Richmond Sets the Field

NASCAR’s regular season is officially over and now as we look forward to the first race of the Chase and the 12 drivers who will be giving chase to the coveted Sprint Cup, you can’t help but wonder just what the next 10 weeks will bring. A lot of drama spawned from the Wonderful Pistachios 400. Tempers flared, frustration grew, cars damaged (on accident and purposefully), egos bruised, and on track enemies made. Many of the drivers who were still mathematically eligible to make the Chase vocalized the need for a conservative approach on the track and to simply stay out of trouble, but Saturday night under the lights at Richmond International Raceway proved anything but.

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The proof is in the stats. The caution flag waved a record 15 times that night. The poor flagman barely had enough time to take back the green flag from honorary starter Frank Siller, founder of the Stephen Siller Tunnels to Tower Foundation and brother of a NYC firefighter who died on 9/11, after whom his foundation is named before having to grab for the yellow as the first caution of the night came out on lap two. Driver s barely made it a handful of laps before another incident occurred. Green flag. Yellow flag. Repeat.

On lap eight the short track version of “big one” happened after contact made between Chase hopeful, Clint Bowyer and David Reutimann collecting Chase favored Dale Earnhardt Jr. and Denny Hamlin in the carnage. It was way too earlier in the evening to be feeling that kind of tension in the air, but it was palpable. The battle had begun and it wouldn’t be long before drivers picked their individual sparring partners.

Kasey Kahne chose wrong, he fought the wall for the first time on lap 27 and then again on lap 51 after going three –wide with Marcos Ambrose and teammate Brian Vickers. The wall remained victorious as Kahne’s No. 4 Red Bull Toyota was towed off the track and the driver taken to the infield care unit. Physically Kahne was all right, but there was that bruised ego that I spoke of earlier to contend with.

Vickers chose Ambrose to a duel, he let the driver of the No. 9 Stanley Ford know just how displeased he was by intentionally wrecking Ambrose under caution on lap 53 and purposely blocking his entrance to pit road. NASCAR won that one by effectively putting Vickers into “time out,” sending his No. 83 machine to the garage for bad behavior. He was allowed to return to the track 68 laps later after thinking long and hard about his actions.

Earnhardt Jr. brawled with Travis Kvapil on lap 152 by giving him a taste of his own medicine. Kvapil made contact with Earnhardt Jr.’s No. 88 Amp Chevrolet earlier in the race and it was now time for some payback by sending Kvapil’s No. 38 Ford into the turn two wall.  Earnhardt Jr., who was a lap down, may have thought he’d win that battle by getting the free pass to get back on the lead lap, but NASCAR saw differently. Since Earnhardt Jr. was involved in the incident that brought out the caution he was awarded the “unlucky dog” pass and stayed a lap down.

Like Kahne before him, Paul Menard took his chance with the wall on lap 172. Once again the wall reigned victorious, sending he and his No. 27 Menards Chevrolet to the garage and ending any hopes of making the Chase.

Kurt Busch started a feud with Jimmie Johnson on lap 185 that would prove to be an all night thing. Johnson’s No. 48 Lowe’s Chevrolet spun in turn two after making contact with Busch. On lap 246 the pair brought out the 11^th caution of the night, Johnson in what looked to be a payback attempt, bumped Busch’s No. 22 Shell/Pennzoil Dodge sending Busch into a spin on turn two. Busch avoided contact with the wall and won the war, as Johnson’s so-called revenge was not so sweet after all, as his car spun out of control and hit the wall, sending him to the garage for repair. 33 laps later Johnson returned to the track on lap 278 and to Busch’s rear bumper by lap 283. However, no further contact was made between he two.

Hamlin and Earnhardt Jr. fought the odds of making the Chase in their busted up racecars in the 392 laps that followed their crash on lap eight, but in the end proved triumphant. They earned they way into the Chase the hard way and victory never tasted sweeter as the two were all smiles in the Media Center. Hamlin maintained his streak of making it into every Chase since his full time Sprint Cup career began in 2006 and Earnhardt Jr. affirmed that he’s still got it and proved his naysayers wrong by making it back into the Chase after a two year hiatus.

Tony Stewart, the third hopeful to make the Chase, did so quietly and consistently, clinching his spot on lap 103.  Surprisingly, Stewart fought with no one, on of off the track in Richmond.

NASCAR's Last Race Before the Chase: Saturday Night's Alright for Fighting at Richmond International Raceway

This weekend Richmond International Raceway will play host once again to the “Last Race Before the Chase.” Since the introduction of “The Chase for the Sprint Cup” in 2004, Richmond’s September night race has served as the “regular season’s” finale. It generally proves to be one heck of a show as the drivers vie for one of the top-10 coveted Chase spots and/or two of the “Wild Card” positions that will ultimately make up the top-12 who will go on to compete in the season’s 10 race showdown that ultimately determines who the 2011 Sprint Cup champ will be.

Heading into Richmond, nine drivers have already secured their place in the Chase. Jimmie Johnson, Kyle Busch, Carl Edwards, Matt Kenseth, Jeff Gordon, Kevin Harvick, Kurt Busch, Ryan Newman and Brad Keselowski, who currently hold ones of the two Wild Card positions.  While technically, any driver currently sitting 23rd or better has a chance at one of the remaining three Chase spots, all eyes are focused on a handful of drivers who are expected to get the job done.

As the points stand now heading into the weekend, Dale Earnhardt Jr., Tony Stewart and Denny Hamlin are the favorites to secure those last coveted positions, but fans know that in NASCAR anything can and will happen, nothing is guaranteed.  In order to process it all one must turn to higher math and perhaps a perfect alignment of all the planets to get it a full understanding of just how things could turn out.

With three victories under his belt, Keselowski has clinched himself a safe haven in one of the two Wild Card positions, but depending on his finish in Richmond is still eligible for a Top-10 spot, potentially knocking Earnhardt Jr. and Stewart out of one of the ninth and 10th spots in which they currently sit.

In order to clinch his spot in the Chase, regardless of how any other driver finishes, Earnhardt Jr., who has failed to make the Chase since 2008, must secure a 20th place finish or better, 21st or better and leads at least one lap or 22nd or better and leads the most laps. Regardless of any other driver’s finish, Stewart will clinch his spot by finishing 18th or better, 19th or betting leading one lap and 20th or better leading the most laps.

Got that? Good! It gets a little trickier from here.

Hamlin can seize his Wild Card spot by winning the race on Saturday night. Paul Menard could potentially take that Wild Card should he win the race. Other hopefuls include Marcos Ambrose and David Ragan, who are also eligible for the Wild Card, but each of them would need to take their car to victory AND advance their point standings into the Top-20.

The best of the rest would require a win, a position in the Top-20 and a variety of scenarios and various finishes from the other drivers in order to earn their place in the Chase.

The Chase can be a tough nut to crack, but just as the race, aptly named the “Wonderful Pistachios 400,” will prove in the end; once the tough outer shell has been cracked, the delicious goodness inside makes the fight for the checkered flag that much more worthwhile.

So who’s it going to be? After a two year hiatus, will Earnhardt Jr.’s performance prove worthy of a Chase spot, will Stewart channel that old school intensity that we know and love to hang on to 10th place and will Hamlin, Richmond’s favorite son, kick it into high gear to bring home a win at his hometown track for the third year in a row?

Only time will tell, so have at it boys, Saturday night’s alright for fighting, so get a little action in and give the fans a night to remember!

Photo Credit: Barry Albert, SpeedwayMedia.com